Findings: In this study of US mortality data from 2016 through 2024, national homicide mortality decreased after the COVID-19 surge, but post-Dobbs trajectories diverged between states with and without sustained abortion bans. The fitted homicide rate of women of reproductive age in states with total or near-total abortion bans was 7% higher than the modeled counterfactual in 2023 and 15% higher in 2024, corresponding to an estimated 48 and 87 excess deaths, respectively.
Meaning: The findings suggest that national decreases in homicide mortality may mask widening differences in homicide mortality among women of reproductive age across state abortion policy environments.