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Center for Health System Sustainability

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Health Affairs Scholar

Cross-Country Differences in Household Healthcare Spending

September 3, 2026
Health systems face financial pressures as populations age and economic growth slows, with implications for who pays for health care and for what drives expenditure growth.

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JAMA Network Open

H-1B Visa Restrictions and US Primary Care Dependence on International Medical Graduates

August 17, 2026
Primary care in the US faces persistent workforce shortages compounded by concerns about retention, with increasing numbers of physicians exiting the workforce in recent years. Non-US international medical graduates (IMGs) represent a substantial share of the residency pathway in specialties that provide first-contact care and chronic disease management. Most IMGs enter US graduate medical education through J-1 visas, which are specifically designed for clinical training and typically require return to the home country upon completion of training. In contrast, H-1B visas are employment-based and allow physicians to remain in the US for clinical practice, making them an important pathway for workforce retention. Policy changes affecting H-1B visa availability may have important implications for the stability of the training pathway.5 This study quantifies specialty- and state-level reliance on non-US IMGs in primary care training and estimates the extent to which H-1B visa restrictions could disrupt this pathway.
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Health Affairs Forefront

The Trump Administration’s Deals With Pharma: Policy Progress Or Political Theater?

July 30, 2026
President Donald Trump has made lowering prescription drug prices a signature issue during both his administrations. Until recently, however, he had relatively little to show for it. During his first term, Congress did not enact major drug-pricing legislation, and his executive initiatives on drug importation, international reference pricing in Medicare Part B, and rebate reform in Medicare Part D were left unimplemented.

The second Trump administration has pursued a broader, more aggressive “most-favored-nation” (MFN) drug pricing agenda, seeking to peg US prices to international benchmarks and thereby import lower prices paid abroad. Its initiatives include the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE) model and the Guarding US Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs (GUARD) model, mandatory MFN reference pricing models for Medicare Parts B and D, respectively; and the GENErating cost Reductions fOr US Medicaid (GENEROUS) model, a voluntary model for Medicaid.

Most public attention, however, has focused on voluntary bilateral agreements with 17 drug companies representing 86 percent of branded drug sales. Announced between September 2025 and April 2026, these agreements include price concessions, commitments to sell drugs through direct-to-consumer channels (such as the administration’s TrumpRx website), and investments in domestic drug development and manufacturing (exhibit 1).

The significance of these deals is disputed. The White House touts them as “the most significant actions ever taken” to lower drug prices. Critics, such as Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), have called them “a sham that benefits pharmaceutical corporations while offering little to no savings to patients and their families.”
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Sage Journals

Altruism budgets or benevolence constraints? Pro-social behaviours across causes and domains

June 26, 2026
We examine the existence of altruism budgets (AB), which imply fixed monetary allocations to prosocial behaviours (PSB), and benevolence constraints (BC), which refer to wider limits to benevolent behaviour, giving rise to a substitution between PSB's across domains and causes, including volunteering and biological donations. Using longitudinal data from the Netherlands from 2003 to 2019, we exploit two exogenous shocks to charitable behaviour: the introduction of a tax incentive that increased donations to culture and the arts, and a large-scale emergency fundraising campaign targeting Syrian refugees and victims of Typhoon Haiyan. Our results provide no evidence of AB but robust evidence of BC. We find a robust and precisely estimated decline in volunteering of approximately 4.5 hours per month after the emergency aid campaign among donors. This pattern suggests that individuals substitute across different forms of prosocial behaviour, reallocating effort from non-monetary activities such as volunteering toward monetary contributions during periods of heightened charitable demand.
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News from SPH

2026 Civic Information Index powers local assessments of civic health – now including environmental resilience data

May 13, 2026
Latest edition reveals persistent regional disparities in civic health and civic information – and opportunities for change.
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Frontiers in Transplantation

Best practices along the kidney transplantation clinical journey

April 12, 2026
Background: Kidney transplantation (KTx) practices vary across healthcare systems, yet the operational components of best practice (BP) along the clinical pathway remain incompletely defined. This study aimed to identify key best practice elements across the kidney transplantation journey in four European countries.Methods: A mixed-methods study was conducted across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. A structured survey (n = 253 respondents, including patients, living donors, nephrologists, transplant surgeons, transplant coordinators, and hospital administrators) assessed clinical practice and patient experience across four domains: CKD management, kidney donation and transplantation, transplant recipient care, and service governance. Semi-structured focus group interviews were performed in each country to contextualise survey findings. Ethics approval was obtained in accordance with national requirements.Results: Key elements for best practices along the KTx clinical journey were identified: (1) development of protocols to standardise the variable monitoring of CKD, to minimize urban-rural differences in clinical practice due to limited resources and follow-up care; (2) enhanced primary care training and targeted resource allocation to diagnose and monitor early-stage CKD; (3) donor coordination and promotion of living donation, addressing gaps in patient awareness and access to care; (4) development of communication protocols on living donation; (5) implementation of targeted patient and donor educational campaigns on living donation; (6) enhanced post-transplant follow-up care by nephrologists; (7) integration of quality-of-life assessments and psychological donor support post-transplantation; (8) increased availability of transplant coordinators to promote equitable resource allocation and the adoption of innovative practices; (9) streamlined governance structures along clinical journey; and (10) equitable funding models with consistent reimbursement policies across patient groups.Conclusions: This study provides a cross-national, mixed-methods framework for strengthening equity, coordination, and quality in kidney transplantation. Addressing variability in monitoring pathways, referral structures, patient-centred outcomes, and workforce capacity may enhance implementation of international transplantation guidelines and improve patient and donor outcomes.
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International Journal of Health Economics and Management

Association between patient continuity of care and physicians’ hypoglycaemic medication prescription trends

March 25, 2026
The general prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes mellitus is rapidly increasing while exacerbating the burden of disease on healthcare systems. Its management, as opposed to communicable diseases, is typically long term and requires ongoing healthcare interventions, such as dietary control and medication prescription, with associated costs. The prescription requires an interaction between patients and physicians, which may be sporadic or continuous, and can be used as a proxy measure for the strength of patient–doctor relationship. We hypothesize that fragmentation of care, across physician specialties and payers, plays a role on prescription behaviour, above and beyond for patient and prescription characteristics. A panel of patients’ prescriptions events with the universe of all prescriptions and dispensing in Portugal from January 2015 to October 2019 (N = 791.467) provided by Serviços Partilhados do Ministério da Saúde, EPE was considered. We measured the association between care fragmentation of care and prescription behavior of antihyperglycaemic medication using negative binomial regression models. Results suggest that Specialists play a secondary role on the prescription of DPP-4i and SGLT2i, prescribing 12.3 and 4.3% less respectively, while playing a central role on the prescription of GLP-1, in comparison with GPs. Fragmentation of care also plays a part on prescription trends, i.e., physicians with higher of continuity of care present higher rates of prescription of approximately 5.9% for DPP-4i, 6.5% for SGLT2i and 39.6% for GLP-1. The comparison of prescription trends amongst public and private payers suggests that public payers have lower rates of prescriptions (DPP-4i: 9.6%; SGLT2i: 7.2%; GLP-1: 85.6%). We find important differences in prescription patterns between specialists and primary care physicians. Higher continuity of care is associated with increased prescription frequency. Finally, public payers are associated with lower prescription rates. Physician specialty, payer, and care fragmentation all interact in the prescription patterns of antihyperglycaemic medication.
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BMC Health Services Research

International comparison of equity gradients in hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions

March 23, 2026
Hospitalizations for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are thought to be avoidable with effective preventive care and early disease management, usually delivered in community-based ambulatory care settings. These hospitalizations are both costly and sensitive to the socioeconomic situation of patients. Understanding whether different health systems mitigate the sensitivity of ACSCs to socioeconomic gradients may direct attention to equity-improving approaches to ambulatory health care. This study sought to identify differences in the gradient of Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSC) relative to socioeconomic status across nine countries, namely Australia, Canada, England, Finland, France, New Zealand, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States (US).
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Health Affairs

Will The New CMS ACO Model LEAD To Better Care For High-Need Medicare Beneficiaries?

March 6, 2026
For decades, policy makers have struggled to improve care and control costs for medically complex and socially vulnerable populations, particularly individuals dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. Dual-eligible beneficiaries experience high rates of chronic illness, disability, and unmet social needs, and they account for a disproportionate share of Medicare and Medicaid spending. Despite sustained efforts to shift payment from volume to value, performance-based models have often yielded uneven results among providers serving these populations. In Medicare’s Accountable Care Organization (ACO) programs, organizations caring for higher proportions of racial and ethnic minority beneficiaries and socially vulnerable patients have faced greater challenges achieving savings and sustaining participation. These patterns highlight a central dilemma in value-based payment: without careful risk adjustment and benchmarking, models designed to reward quality of care and efficiency may disadvantage providers serving communities with concentrated social risk.
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Health Affairs

Primary Care Physician Trends: Dissatisfaction, Stress, And Burnout In The US And 9 Comparator Countries, 2012–22

March 1, 2026
Burnout and decreased well-being among primary care physicians threaten workforce sustainability and health outcomes. Understanding how primary care physician burnout and its mitigators differ across countries could inform policy changes, but evidence is limited. Using 2012–22 survey data from primary care physicians in the United States and nine other high-income countries, we found that shares reporting stress rose across countries. By 2022, the US had one of the highest shares of primary care physicians reporting burnout (44 percent). Switzerland (18 percent) and the Netherlands (12 percent) had the lowest shares reporting burnout, alongside higher shares with satisfaction and lower shares with stress. Across countries, female physicians had higher odds of burnout, whereas workplace factors—including satisfaction with income and administrative workload—and better care quality were associated with reduced odds of burnout. Efforts to reduce burnout should address disparities by sex and should include systemic supports including quality initiatives, flexible work, and arrangements for patient cross-coverage; in-depth cross-national learning could reveal additional strategies.
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Health Affairs Forefront

The US Health Spending Problem Is Still About Prices

February 18, 2026
For more than two decades, debates about why US health care spending is so high have been shaped by the insight articulated by Gerard Anderson, Uwe Reinhardt, and Peter Hussey: that the United States does not use more health care than other high-income countries but pays much higher prices for it. The original “It’s the Prices, Stupid” argument was fundamentally about price levels, not price growth. That central insight remains as true today as when it was first articulated: across services, drugs, and inputs, the United States consistently pays substantially higher prices than its peers for comparable services, drugs, and inputs.
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Journal of Health Policy, Politics, and Law

From Relf v. Weinberger to Drive-Through Delivery: Unpacking Democratic Responsiveness and Administrative Levers in U.S. Sterilization Policy Free

February 13, 2026
Female sterilization occupies a paradoxical place in reproductive policy. When chosen freely, it is a safe and effective contraceptive method, yet has also been deployed as a tool of coercion and state control. This dual legacy makes the United States, where sterilization remains more common than other high-income democracies, an important case for examining how public accountability and policy design shape permanent contraceptive use. From a theoretical perspective, highly visible, accountability-driven interventions such as the 1974 Relf v. Weinberger case might be expected to generate larger behavioral changes than less visible administrative reforms, though prior scholarship offers mixed expectations about the relative influence of legal visibility versus economic incentives. To test these competing expectations, we analyze a harmonized panel of contraceptive surveys from 190 nations (1965-2010) and apply the synthetic-control method. We examine the behavioral impact of Relf as a democratic accountability event and contrast it with a later unrelated administrative change in U.S. hospital reimbursement policy in the 1990s. We find that the public outrage and litigation following Relf produced formal consent safeguards but were associated with limited changes in the national sterilization rates. In contrast, the 1990s payment reforms, aimed at cost containment, were associated with a sustained national decline. Together, these contrasting impacts suggest that reforms driven by court decisions and financial architecture may influence entrenched policies through different, potentially complementary, channels. Taken together, the findings affirm the important role of administrative levers alongside legislative activism, levers often overlooked in reproductive rights debates despite their capacity to reshape clinical practice.
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Health Affairs

Review Times For New Drugs And Submission Delays Among The FDA And 4 International Regulators, 2014–22

February 2, 2026
Factors influencing the timing of regulatory submission for new drugs across countries are poorly understood. We identified all new drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or European Medicines Agency (EMA) during the period 2014–18 and tracked their regulatory submissions to the US, the European Union, Canada, Japan, and Australia through 2022. We assessed whether disease area, orphan status, therapeutic value, market size, and launch price were associated with submission delays. The FDA received the highest proportion of first submissions (70 percent). Median submission delays ranged from zero months (FDA) to 18.5 months (Australia). The range of median regulatory review times was small (9.2–14.1 months) compared with the range of median submission delays. Drugs with moderate-to-high therapeutic value were associated with a six-month earlier submission time compared to drugs with low therapeutic value, on average. Higher-price drugs were associated with earlier submission, on average. Overall, cross-national differences in drug availability largely reflected differences in submission, not regulatory review, times. Although the US had greater and faster availability of novel therapeutics, the difference was smaller for drugs that offered moderate-to-high therapeutic value.
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Health Economics Policy and Law

Private equity investments in health care in OECD countries: an exploratory analysis

January 28, 2026
Private equity (PE) firms are increasingly investing in healthcare, seeking short-term returns through market consolidation, price increases, asset sales, and financial engineering. Although PE is transforming the healthcare sector, many countries lack systematic data to determine whether a regulatory response is warranted. Using data from PitchBook, we document substantial and growing PE investment in health care across 25 of 38 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, totalling over 8,400 reported deals and $1.4 trillion in capital between 2013 and 2023. Outpatient clinics represent the dominant target of investment, while hospital and elder care sectors have attracted investments in select countries. Exploratory regression analyses suggest that PE firms are less likely to invest in countries with a social health insurance system and that PE deal volume is positively associated with health expenditures. Country-specific deviations from model predictions underscore the importance of unmeasured country-specific factors such as regulation, payment policy, and market competition. Eight case studies illustrate the operational, financial, and social implications of PE investments, as well as diverse regulatory contexts. Given the lack of disclosure requirements, a key policy priority for governments is to enhance transparency to enable effective monitoring of the financialisation of health care delivery.
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JAMA Health Forum

Tertiary Patents on Drugs Approved by the FDA

January 2, 2026
Question: How have medical device patents contributed to periods of market exclusivity on drug-device combinations?

Findings: In this cohort study of 331 drug-device combinations approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from 1986 to 2023, 1751 of 3241 individual patent listings were on the delivery devices of these products. Medical device patents extended periods of protection for 180 products (54.4%) by a median (IQR) of 7.5 (2.8-13.9) years, with most device patents failing to mention the active pharmaceutical ingredients in their claims.

Meaning: Patenting strategies on drug-device combinations may impede generic entry and keep prices high for patients and payers.
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Springer Nature Link

Evaluating the value for money of global fund’s expenditures (2017–2019)

December 18, 2025
Background: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria is one of the world’s largest global health donor agencies, playing a key role by filling recipient countries’ domestic health financing gaps; however, little is known about how well it achieves value for money. Given the current uncertainty regarding global health development assistance, it is critical to understand how to prioritize external donor funding allocations in an effort to maximize health impact.

Methods: In this study, we evaluated 66 recipient countries’ efficiency relative to peers in achieving improvement in health outcomes for TB, malaria, and HIV given their 2017–2019 Global Fund expenditures for (1) health products, (2) program activities, and (3) program management. Using a combination of frontier analysis, linear regression, and cluster analysis, we examined how macroeconomic conditions, epidemiological context, health system factors, and Global Fund spending decisions explain variation in country program performance.

Results: For malaria and HIV, we found a negative relationship between Global Fund spending on program activity and health product costs respectively and countries’ efficiency at translating funds to health impact. For malaria and HIV, there was also significant variation in efficiency across countries according to their economic capacity, disease burden, and most prominent spending area.

Conclusions: Our results suggest possible structural inefficiencies in country program management, dampening the health impact of frontline programs. The lack of broad patterns to predict performance signals the importance of tailoring spending strategies to country-specific contexts.
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JAMA Health Forum

Obstetric-Related Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act Violations and No Health Exception Bans

December 5, 2025
Question: How did obstetric-related Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) violations change in association with state-level abortion policy?

Findings: In this difference-in-differences analysis of EMTALA violations from 2018 to the first quarter of 2023, states with no health exceptions saw a substantial rise in obstetric-related violations that were associated with policies adopted by Texas. There was a concurrent rise in emergency department utilization, and screening failures suggest that violations may have increasingly occurred on arrival before treatment.

Meaning: The study results suggest that state abortion laws may undermine federally protected care in obstetric emergencies.
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JAMA Health Forum

Racial Disparities in Premature Mortality and Unrealized Medicare Benefits Across US States

November 7, 2025
Medicare is often regarded as a universal benefit for most US citizens and legal permanent residents. The program is financed through payroll tax contributions during individuals’ working lives with the expectation of coverage at age 65 years for most people. However, those who die prematurely are unable to realize the benefits they helped fund—raising equity concerns for populations with lower life expectancies.

In 2022, the mean life expectancy in the US was 77.5 years, down from 78.9 years in 2014,2 partly due to rising mortality among working-age adults and widening disparities across racial and socioeconomic groups.3-5 As health declines begin earlier—especially for Black individuals—a growing number may not reach Medicare eligibility. This inequity in unrealized Medicare benefits underscores the need to understand how premature mortality before age 65 years has varied over time and by race.
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Health Affairs

Reducing Spending And Enhancing Value In US Health Care: Reflections On The GAO Report

October 29, 2025
Federal health spending plays a central role in the nation’s long-term fiscal outlook. In 2024, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program accounted for 31 percent of all federal program spending—$1.8 trillion—and this total is projected to rise significantly over the next 30 years. At the same time, private health insurance spending per enrollee is expected to grow by over 50 percent by 2032. These unsustainable trends—occurring without commensurate improvements in population health— create a burning need for reform: Without meaningful change, rising health care costs will increasingly strain household budgets, crowd out other federal and state priorities, and undermine the nation’s long-term fiscal stability.

Against this urgent backdrop, the United States Government Accountability Office issued its 2024 report, “Highlights of a Forum: Reducing Spending and Enhancing Value in the U.S. Health Care System”. The report summarizes the discussions of an expert forum convened in October 2024. The forum brought together participants from government, academia, and industry to explore persistent challenges in United States (US) health care spending and identify opportunities to improve value. The report’s recommendations were structured around five pre-identified areas of potential reform: strengthening primary care; expanding the health care workforce; reforming pricing to better align with high value care; revising Medicare physician payments; and mitigating anticompetitive actions and practices. As two of the forum participants, we highlight below the areas we believe are most critical for policymakers to consider and offer new insights that have gained salience given shifts in the policy landscape since the forum was conducted.
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BMJ Global Health

An assessment of antimicrobial resistance national action plans and their impact on antibiotic use

October 28, 2025
Introduction: By 2050, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could lead to over 10 million deaths annually and $100 trillion in healthcare costs, making it one of the most urgent public health threats. The WHO recommends AMR National Action Plans (AMR NAPs) to address this threat, but the effectiveness of these plans is unknown.

Methods: We estimate the impact of AMR NAPs on retail sales of all antibiotics across 68 countries from 2014 to 2023 using IQVIAs Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System dataset. We further examine the effect of AMR NAP adoption on the proportion of antibiotic sales by WHO AWaRe (Access, Watch, Reserve) classification. To account for differences in the quality of the AMR NAP, we also examine if countries with a better NAP have differential use of antibiotics following its adoption. Finally, we explore whether countries with higher quality NAPs make differential use of azithromycin during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results: The adoption of an AMR NAP did not have a significant impact on total retail antibiotic sales. But when accounting for the quality of the AMR NAP, as identified from an evaluation of NAP plans, we find that high-scoring AMR NAPs significantly increased the proportion of retail sales from Access-class agents (0.031; 95% CI 0.003 to 0.06), and significantly decreased the proportion of Watch-class antibiotics (−0.03; 95% CI −0.055 to −0.005) as compared with those with lower scoring or no NAPs. Countries with high-scoring NAPs also exhibited lower retail azithromycin sales per 1000 persons during the COVID-19 pandemic (−49.08; 95% CI −89 to −9.16).

Conclusions: Countries with higher quality AMR NAPs exhibit more appropriate use of essential antibiotics overall and less inappropriate utilisation of azithromycin during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with those with no or low-scoring plans. Well-developed AMR NAPs may be a useful policy tool to promote more judicious antibiotic use globally.
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The Lancet Public Health

Comparing US prevention efforts to other high-income countries

October 27, 2025
Life expectancy in the USA is considerably lower than in most high-income countries, with many deaths considered preventable. The extent by which poor performance on prevention measures and public health policies in the USA could be contributing to this issue is not well understood. To address this issue, we compared publicly available population-based indicators of health care across different levels of prevention in the USA and six high-income countries (ie, Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Sweden, and the UK) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries between 2010 and 2023. Relative to comparator countries, the USA had a younger population and lower smoking rates, but it had higher obesity prevalence, calorie intake, illicit drug use, and gun and vehicle ownership. Regarding public health policies that lie largely outside the health-care system, the USA compared unfavourably to comparator countries. For measures dependent on the health-care system, the USA performed well across several measures of clinical prevention, including screening rates and diagnosis and control of chronic conditions. However, the USA was worse on measures of access to health care and coverage. While the USA performs well in prevention efforts within the health-care system compared with other countries for people with access to the system, it faces greater risk from external factors, generally worse dietary intake, and implements weaker public health prevention and regulation against harmful products that might exacerbate these issues. To improve population health, policy makers should prioritise multi-sectoral investments in prevention policies and improve access to health care.
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JAMA Health Forum

Revenue Differences Between Top-Selling Small-Molecule Drugs and Biologics in Medicare

October 17, 2025
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for certain brand-name drugs with gross annual Medicare spending exceeding $200 million. Small-molecule drugs are exempt from negotiation for 9 years following US Food and Drug Administration approval and biologics for 13 years. The pharmaceutical industry, some members of Congress, and the Trump administration have argued that this difference prioritizes the development of biologics over small-molecule drugs and have proposed aligning the initial eligibility periods for both at 13 years.1,2 To inform these policy discussions, we compared the revenues earned by manufacturers after 9 vs 13 years on negotiation-eligible products from 2012 to 2022.
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New England Journal of Medicine

The Rise of Drug Innovation in China — Implications for Patient Access in the United States and Globally

September 4, 2025
Trade-related tensions between the United States and China have escalated dramatically in recent months. Despite a tentative agreement in May 2025 (extended in August 2025) to reduce the size of newly imposed tariffs on both sides, geopolitical frictions remain. Among other implications, these tensions threaten the cross-border trade of medicines. China has long been a major global supplier of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients. In recent years, it has also emerged as an important player in new drug development — a field traditionally dominated by the United States and European countries. This shift has implications for global access to promising new medicines and presents challenges for U.S. regulators and policymakers.

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Health Policy

Measuring health system resilience: Understanding the relationship between excess mortality and health system performance

September 4, 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of resilient health systems that can manage and adapt to large-scale health crises. However, the relationship between resilience and health system performance remains unclear. While some view performance as a feature of resilience, others conflate the two. Excess mortality—defined as the difference between observed and expected deaths during a given period—is often used to assess resilience, but may introduce bias. In particular, countries with stronger pre-pandemic performance and lower baseline mortality may appear to have worse resilience simply because they had less “room” for mortality to rise under normal conditions.

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