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Center for Health System Sustainability

Publications

The latest publications from the Center for Health System Sustainability

Publications

The latest publications from the Center for Health System Sustainability

See more CHeSS publications
JAMA Health Forum

Obstetric-Related Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act Violations and No Health Exception Bans

December 5, 2025
Question: How did obstetric-related Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) violations change in association with state-level abortion policy?

Findings: In this difference-in-differences analysis of EMTALA violations from 2018 to the first quarter of 2023, states with no health exceptions saw a substantial rise in obstetric-related violations that were associated with policies adopted by Texas. There was a concurrent rise in emergency department utilization, and screening failures suggest that violations may have increasingly occurred on arrival before treatment.

Meaning: The study results suggest that state abortion laws may undermine federally protected care in obstetric emergencies.
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JAMA Health Forum

Racial Disparities in Premature Mortality and Unrealized Medicare Benefits Across US States

November 7, 2025
Medicare is often regarded as a universal benefit for most US citizens and legal permanent residents. The program is financed through payroll tax contributions during individuals’ working lives with the expectation of coverage at age 65 years for most people. However, those who die prematurely are unable to realize the benefits they helped fund—raising equity concerns for populations with lower life expectancies.

In 2022, the mean life expectancy in the US was 77.5 years, down from 78.9 years in 2014,2 partly due to rising mortality among working-age adults and widening disparities across racial and socioeconomic groups.3-5 As health declines begin earlier—especially for Black individuals—a growing number may not reach Medicare eligibility. This inequity in unrealized Medicare benefits underscores the need to understand how premature mortality before age 65 years has varied over time and by race.
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Health Affairs

Reducing Spending And Enhancing Value In US Health Care: Reflections On The GAO Report

October 29, 2025
Federal health spending plays a central role in the nation’s long-term fiscal outlook. In 2024, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program accounted for 31 percent of all federal program spending—$1.8 trillion—and this total is projected to rise significantly over the next 30 years. At the same time, private health insurance spending per enrollee is expected to grow by over 50 percent by 2032. These unsustainable trends—occurring without commensurate improvements in population health— create a burning need for reform: Without meaningful change, rising health care costs will increasingly strain household budgets, crowd out other federal and state priorities, and undermine the nation’s long-term fiscal stability.

Against this urgent backdrop, the United States Government Accountability Office issued its 2024 report, “Highlights of a Forum: Reducing Spending and Enhancing Value in the U.S. Health Care System”. The report summarizes the discussions of an expert forum convened in October 2024. The forum brought together participants from government, academia, and industry to explore persistent challenges in United States (US) health care spending and identify opportunities to improve value. The report’s recommendations were structured around five pre-identified areas of potential reform: strengthening primary care; expanding the health care workforce; reforming pricing to better align with high value care; revising Medicare physician payments; and mitigating anticompetitive actions and practices. As two of the forum participants, we highlight below the areas we believe are most critical for policymakers to consider and offer new insights that have gained salience given shifts in the policy landscape since the forum was conducted.
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BMJ Global Health

An assessment of antimicrobial resistance national action plans and their impact on antibiotic use

October 28, 2025
Introduction: By 2050, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could lead to over 10 million deaths annually and $100 trillion in healthcare costs, making it one of the most urgent public health threats. The WHO recommends AMR National Action Plans (AMR NAPs) to address this threat, but the effectiveness of these plans is unknown.

Methods: We estimate the impact of AMR NAPs on retail sales of all antibiotics across 68 countries from 2014 to 2023 using IQVIAs Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System dataset. We further examine the effect of AMR NAP adoption on the proportion of antibiotic sales by WHO AWaRe (Access, Watch, Reserve) classification. To account for differences in the quality of the AMR NAP, we also examine if countries with a better NAP have differential use of antibiotics following its adoption. Finally, we explore whether countries with higher quality NAPs make differential use of azithromycin during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results: The adoption of an AMR NAP did not have a significant impact on total retail antibiotic sales. But when accounting for the quality of the AMR NAP, as identified from an evaluation of NAP plans, we find that high-scoring AMR NAPs significantly increased the proportion of retail sales from Access-class agents (0.031; 95% CI 0.003 to 0.06), and significantly decreased the proportion of Watch-class antibiotics (−0.03; 95% CI −0.055 to −0.005) as compared with those with lower scoring or no NAPs. Countries with high-scoring NAPs also exhibited lower retail azithromycin sales per 1000 persons during the COVID-19 pandemic (−49.08; 95% CI −89 to −9.16).

Conclusions: Countries with higher quality AMR NAPs exhibit more appropriate use of essential antibiotics overall and less inappropriate utilisation of azithromycin during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with those with no or low-scoring plans. Well-developed AMR NAPs may be a useful policy tool to promote more judicious antibiotic use globally.
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The Lancet Public Health

Comparing US prevention efforts to other high-income countries

October 27, 2025
Life expectancy in the USA is considerably lower than in most high-income countries, with many deaths considered preventable. The extent by which poor performance on prevention measures and public health policies in the USA could be contributing to this issue is not well understood. To address this issue, we compared publicly available population-based indicators of health care across different levels of prevention in the USA and six high-income countries (ie, Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Sweden, and the UK) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries between 2010 and 2023. Relative to comparator countries, the USA had a younger population and lower smoking rates, but it had higher obesity prevalence, calorie intake, illicit drug use, and gun and vehicle ownership. Regarding public health policies that lie largely outside the health-care system, the USA compared unfavourably to comparator countries. For measures dependent on the health-care system, the USA performed well across several measures of clinical prevention, including screening rates and diagnosis and control of chronic conditions. However, the USA was worse on measures of access to health care and coverage. While the USA performs well in prevention efforts within the health-care system compared with other countries for people with access to the system, it faces greater risk from external factors, generally worse dietary intake, and implements weaker public health prevention and regulation against harmful products that might exacerbate these issues. To improve population health, policy makers should prioritise multi-sectoral investments in prevention policies and improve access to health care.
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JAMA Health Forum

Revenue Differences Between Top-Selling Small-Molecule Drugs and Biologics in Medicare

October 17, 2025
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for certain brand-name drugs with gross annual Medicare spending exceeding $200 million. Small-molecule drugs are exempt from negotiation for 9 years following US Food and Drug Administration approval and biologics for 13 years. The pharmaceutical industry, some members of Congress, and the Trump administration have argued that this difference prioritizes the development of biologics over small-molecule drugs and have proposed aligning the initial eligibility periods for both at 13 years.1,2 To inform these policy discussions, we compared the revenues earned by manufacturers after 9 vs 13 years on negotiation-eligible products from 2012 to 2022.
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New England Journal of Medicine

The Rise of Drug Innovation in China — Implications for Patient Access in the United States and Globally

September 4, 2025
Trade-related tensions between the United States and China have escalated dramatically in recent months. Despite a tentative agreement in May 2025 (extended in August 2025) to reduce the size of newly imposed tariffs on both sides, geopolitical frictions remain. Among other implications, these tensions threaten the cross-border trade of medicines. China has long been a major global supplier of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients. In recent years, it has also emerged as an important player in new drug development — a field traditionally dominated by the United States and European countries. This shift has implications for global access to promising new medicines and presents challenges for U.S. regulators and policymakers.

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Health Policy

Measuring health system resilience: Understanding the relationship between excess mortality and health system performance

September 4, 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of resilient health systems that can manage and adapt to large-scale health crises. However, the relationship between resilience and health system performance remains unclear. While some view performance as a feature of resilience, others conflate the two. Excess mortality—defined as the difference between observed and expected deaths during a given period—is often used to assess resilience, but may introduce bias. In particular, countries with stronger pre-pandemic performance and lower baseline mortality may appear to have worse resilience simply because they had less “room” for mortality to rise under normal conditions.

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JAMA

Reporting of Clinical Trial Uncertainties With New Cancer Drugs in Journal Publications and Clinical Guidelines

September 3, 2025
More than 75% of cancer drugs are approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) through expedited regulatory programs,(1) the use of which often leaves clinical uncertainties that may arise from issues related to trial design, conduct, analysis, or reporting—such as unvalidated end points, limited long-term data, or approval based on a single trial—about drug efficacy and safety.(2) Communicating these uncertainties is important, as clinicians may otherwise be unaware and overestimate a drug’s benefits and underestimate its risks.(3)

Although the FDA describes these uncertainties in detail in its benefit-risk assessments,(2) these documents are not widely read by clinicians. Instead, clinicians often rely on journal publications and guidelines. It is unclear whether clinical trial uncertainties about newly approved cancer drugs are reported in these sources.

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The Lancet Public Health

Addressing public health and health system challenges in Greece: reform priorities in a changing landscape

September 1, 2025
Health systems globally face growing challenges, including ageing populations, increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, and limited resources to fund advances in health care. Emerging issues, such as climate change, infectious disease outbreaks, large-scale migration, and geopolitical instability, are placing additional strain on already burdened health systems. In Greece, many of these stressors have converged in the past 15 years, exposing structural vulnerabilities and testing health system resilience.(1–3)

Against this backdrop, Greece has implemented a series of reforms to improve service delivery and address public health challenges, but their long-term sustainability remains uncertain. The COVID-19 pandemic offered an illustrative example; the initial response was effective and driven by the prompt adoption of public health measures and interministerial coordination. However, as the pandemic progressed, persistent weaknesses and underdeveloped public health infrastructure exposed crucial vulnerabilities, ultimately undermining the health system's capacity to sustain an effective response.(4) Examining the Greek health system's adaptive capacity more broadly offers important insights for policy makers, in Greece and in other contexts facing comparable structural and fiscal constraints.

This Health Policy paper explores the key and emerging public health and health system challenges in Greece. The paper also provides an overview of recent reform efforts, identifying crucial gaps and opportunities for strengthening the health system to ensure its long-term sustainability.

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Schizophrenia Bulletin

Weight Loss in Veterans with Schizophrenia and Multimorbidity Prescribed Semaglutide: Results From a National Retrospective Cohort Study

August 17, 2025
People with schizophrenia are at heightened risk for physical multimorbidity and premature death. Semaglutide improves cardiometabolic outcomes, yet research is limited among individuals with schizophrenia. This study explored weight loss in Veterans with schizophrenia and physical multimorbidity (ie, heart failure and diabetes) prescribed semaglutide and compared weight changes to those in Veterans without schizophrenia. We hypothesized that those with schizophrenia would experience less weight loss compared to those without schizophrenia.

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Health Economics

The Impact of Multimarket Competition on Generic Drugs' Regulated Prices

August 16, 2025
Competition between firms selling similar drugs is often fostered by policymakers as a means to curb pharmaceutical spending. While firms may compete within these specific drug markets, they also repeatedly encounter rival firms in different markets. This may shape competitive dynamics within and between markets. Yet, multimarket contacts, particularly relevant for multiproduct firms such as pharmaceutical companies, are often overlooked by pricing regulations. This paper investigates how multimarket contacts influence competition between pharmaceutical firms in off-patent markets. Using detailed product-level information on all retail pharmacy sales of generic statin drugs, we quantify the universe of multimarket contacts between firms in these off-patent markets, in Portugal, between 2015 and 2017. We then assess how multimarket contacts affect price competition. To do so, we explore the strict price regulation in Portuguese generic drug markets. Specifically, the Portuguese Internal Reference Pricing System (RPS) defines a price cap for each generic drug. Rather than examining absolute drug prices, we quantify the degree of price competition as the ratio between a firm's drug price and its regulatory price cap (price-to-cap ratio). We find that firms with more multimarket interactions set prices closer to price caps, consistent with the mutual forbearance hypothesis. This effect persists after controlling for brand status, lagged market share, and is not explained by common ownership. Our main results are consistent across alternative model specifications. However, due to limited within-firm variation over time, the effect is not significant in system generalized method of moment instrumental variable estimates. These results suggest that price caps may act as coordination anchors, thus lowering price competition between firms. Policymakers should consider targeted price cap adjustments as safeguards to preserve competition in off-patent drug markets.

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CHeSS in the News

See all the announcements
May 19, 2025 AcademyHealth

Publication-of-the-Year Award 2025

The Publication-of-the-Year Award recognizes the best and most relevant peer-reviewed, scientific work that the fields of health services research and health policy have produced and published in the prior calendar year.

Publication-of-the-Year Award
Differential Legal Protections for Biologics Vs Small-Molecule Drugs in the U.S.
Olivier J. Wouters, Ph.D.
April 16, 2025 The Economist

How Britain decides which drugs to buy

Since 1999, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has weighed costs against benefits to help the NHS decide what it should buy. The institute’s boss, Sam Roberts, calls it a mindful “health-care innovation shopper”. Within a fixed budget, every new drug it buys risks squeezing essentials like GPs or ambulances among existing health-care services.
March 26, 2025 STAT+

Recent pharma-telehealth partnerships feel ‘black boxy,’ and why that’s problematic

In recent months, a new kind of partnership between telehealth companies and pharmaceutical manufacturers has come under scrutiny over concerns that such arrangements could lead to inappropriate prescriptions and poor care. Eli Lilly and Pfizer, along with five telehealth companies accessible through the pharma companies’ websites, have recently received letters from four senators echoing those concerns, asking questions about care, prescription volume, and the flow of data and money between the firms. The lawmakers want to determine whether pharma-telehealth deals may be violating the federal anti-kickback statute. That question has also piqued the interest of three health policy researchers at Brown University.
July 1, 2024 Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Policy Approaches to Health System Performance Assessment

The articles in this issue highlight the importance of regular health systems performance assessment to inform policies that advance progress on health system objectives globally, and offer insights on associated data, methods and applications.
June 4, 2024 Science Business

Global research needs transnational funding

As common problems call for more global cooperation in research, cross-border partnerships struggle to get money from national funding agencies
March 2, 2024 APES

Health Policy Analysis of Portuguese Electoral Programs

Sara Machado Ph.D. uses the HSPA framework to examine the health policy propositions being debated by parties in the 2024 Portuguese legislative elections.
January 29, 2024 STAT

Which country has the best health care? That’s the wrong question

Irene Papanicolas: Every health care model involves people doing their best to balance competing priorities in the face of limited resources. In other words, every system involves tradeoffs.
November 10, 2021 The Guardian

England has highest death rates of older patients in western world, study finds

ICCONIC findings featured in a Guardian article.
November 10, 2021 The Health Foundation

Caring for older patients with complex needs: How does England compare with 11 OECD countries?

Report of ICCONIC research to the Health Foundation.
Brown University School of Public Health
Providence RI 02903 401-863-3375 public_health@brown.edu

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